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Recon Market Update - December 4, 2020

Posted by Hank Newman on Dec 4, 2020 12:07:37 PM

"Your carriers still suck and eta's on transit times are wrong!!" (Angry Face!).

 There are 2 interesting charts below if you can get past the performance commentary (teaser).
Yep - we get it!  This is a performance pandemic while we are living in a pandemic of hysteria.  Fact is, while we see LTL carrier performance ticking up a bit, it remains well, well below historical norms so you continue to deal with more failures and upset customers.  If it's any consolation - you're not alone.  This is INDUSTRY-WIDE.  When we see even the best of the regional carriers struggle, it's systemic.
So as we sit here on 12/04/20, what's the forecast?  That's a pun because what's just starting to hit us
Update hand writing with a blue mark on a transparent board
 which will not help carrier performance?  Yep - winter and snowstorms so buckle up.   The real advice now is to EXPECT DISRUPTION and plan ahead where possible.
What about the carrier transit times and ETA's you see in the TMS?  Are they wrong?  Nope - they are the carrier's published transit time guidelines for every lane.  It's important to remember they are GUIDELINES, not guarantees!  And when we get all the flack and disruption we are seeing these days they are, well, about 80% accurate statistically.
If you are in more of a "remote" area - LTL carriers are now expanding the list of regions that they will NOT service every day - another challenge.  Some regions and expanding zip codes are being serviced only twice a week so if a transit says 1 day to a point, it could easily be more if the carrier doesn't service the point daily - as more and more are doing to save on operational efficiencies due to COVID (it's always about COVID right?).
Speaking of COVID - isn't everyone getting it now?  Well everyone includes truck drivers so don't forget that more of them are getting shut down and quarantined too regardless of the fact that they may be "essential" workers.  Yep - a whole lot of flack that doesn't make any of our jobs any easier.
If you can understand all the constraints, we hope you can anticipate the issues!
On to the charts.  I thought it might be interesting to see just how much impact the DAT TL Capacity Index has on TL rates AND on LTL carrier performance.  The charts below certainly show patterns that grab your attention don't they?  Pay attention to TL Capacity!  In a world where hope is being defined as a 4-letter word by the Pandemic of Hysteria crowd, perhaps we might see slightly lower TL rates and better LTL performance coming soon?  May only be for the short-term, but we could use it!!
Freight Graphs 12.4.20


Tags: Freight Class, Accessorials, LTL, Freight Rates, LTL Carrier Cost, Rules Tariff, Logistics, LTL Service, Limited Access, Freight Technology, TMS, Freight Insurance, Freight Claims, Freight News, Freight Update

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